Money and math make elections go

What ever happened to inflation? When it comes to fundraising for their gubernatorial campaigns both Ralph Northam and Ed Gillespie are lagging their 2013 counterparts.

Through the end of September, Northam, the Democratic candidate and current lieutenant governor, has raised $19.8 million. Republican Ed Gillespie has raised $12.9 million.

But as the money trackers at the Virginia Public Access Project point out, at this point in the 2013 race, Gov. Terry McAuliffe had raised $24.7 million. The GOP's Ken Cuccinelli had raised $14.8 million.

In the lieutenant governor race (a.k.a the "I want to be governor someday" contest) the candidates are even more modest: Democrat Justin Fairfax's $1.9 million so far and Republican Jill Vogel's $1.5 million lag former Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling's 2009 total through September of $2.1 million, and the nearly as large sum Democrat Jody Wagner raised that year. Fairfax bested, but Vogel did not, the $1.8 million Northam raised for his 2013 run and the $1.7 million Tim Kaine raised for his 2001 lieutenant governor race. The GOP's 2013 candidate, E.W. Jackson, raised $945,000 through September.

Attorney General Mark Herring's fundraising total of $5.5 million so far, though, sets a record. His Republican challenger John Adams' $2.7 million is more than any other A.G. hopeful, though, including Herring's 2013 total through September of $2.2 million and Republican Mark Obenshain's $2 million.

For those who, like Shad Plank, like to look at small (under $100 donations) as a measure of grass-roots outreach, here are the gubernatorial hopefuls' September totals: Gillespie, 2,739 donors, for an average of $39.61 each; Northam, 6,860 donors, giving an average of $31.61.

Fundraising picks up in the 94th

Post-Labor Day, Shelly Simonds, the Democratic candidate for the House of Delegates' 94th district — central and northern Newport News — is working the grass roots hard, judging by the large number of small donors kicking into her campaign, despite a late start after the party's initial nominee dropped out.

The latest campaign finance reports filed with the State Board of Elections show some 434 people have given an average of $19 each just in September. Small donations don't really pay for ads or costly mailers, but getting $10 or $20 bucks from a supporter is a way of building the kind of connections that translate into somebody standing in line for you on Election Day.

The incumbent she is challenging, Del. David Yancey, R-Newport News, with a warchest of $173,000 even after spending $283,000 so far on the race, has received small donations from just 27 people so far this year.

Simonds received $22,227 in mail services from the state Democratic Party and $8,548 in field operations services from the House Democratic Caucus. Rep. Don Beyer, D-Alexandria, gave $5,000 as did Zack Wittkamp, who was the party's nominee until he withdrew from the race this summer.

The Republicans have spend $48,969 on mailings for Yancey. Majority Leader (and Speaker designee) Kirk Cox, R-Colonial Heights, gave $12,500, and Del. Todd Gilbert, R- Shenandoah County, $11,000.

But party groups are giving even more in other races.

Just up the road, Del. Mike Mullin, D-Newport News, has received $64,717 for mailers from the state party, while his Republican opponent, Heather Cordasco, has received $70,800 from the GOP. Cordasco has also received $106,000 in cash from Speaker Bill Howell's PAC, and $32,699 from the House Republican campaign committee.

Up in Loudoun County, where Del. Tag Greason, R-Leesburg, seeks re-election in a district that gave Clinton a nine percentage point margin, the GOP has paid $46,550 for mailers, while the House campaign committee has kicked in $11,000. As an incumbent, Greason receives more donations from businesses and trade associations than a challenger like Cordasco can count on. His Democratic challenger, David Reid, received $65,330 worth of mailers and mailing services from the Democratic party.

In Fairfax County, where Del. Jim LeMunyon, R-Chantilly, also is seeking re-election in a district that gave Clinton a big victory margin, the GOP has spent $48,700 on mailers, while the House campaign committee has kicked in $64,000. His Democratic challenger, Karrie Delaney, has outraised him, even without counting the $26,400 she's received from the House Democratic caucus and the $51,500 from the state party for mailers.

Polling signals … maybe

Remember those overlapping circles in math class when your teacher tried to explain sets?

We're seeing something like them in the latest survey by the student pollsters at Christopher Newport University's Wason Center for Public Policy — which is why Shad Plank is going to point out something the students note in their discussion of methodology.

When the headline result is that 48 percent of likely voters favor Democrat Ralph Northam and 44 percent favor Republican Ed Gillespie, what this means is a little more complicated. It is:

Somewhere between 43.8 percent and 52.2 percent of voters who have voted at least a couple of times in the past few elections and told the very polite CNU students that they'd probably or certainly vote in November, probably favor Northam.

Somewhere between 39.8 percent and 48.2 percent of that same group of Virginians probably favor Gillespie.

Those subsets (remember those Venn diagram circles?) overlap. They could be saying Northam would win, at least in an election held last week. They could be saying Gillespie would win.

And they say this, too: some 59 percent of registered voters who have voted in at least a couple of the most recent elections say they're going to vote; about the same as usually say so in a statewide (as opposed to presidential) election. Usually, turnout in gubernatorial elections is just barely above 40 percent.

That could matter for another result from the students' poll: asked about voting inclinations for the House of Delegates by party (rather than by specific candidate), somewhere between 43.8 and 52.2 percent of likely voters favor a Democrat, as opposed to somewhere between 35.8 and 44.2 percent who favor a Republican. Somewhere between 7.8 and 16.2 percent don't know or wouldn't say. Higher turnout tends to help Democrats in these races, which is why the careful way the CNU students test for likely voters is particularly interesting.

And, of course, that split in sentiment about the House is a long way from the current 66-34 Republican to Democratic split, isn't it?

Sometimes, mind you, you get circles with big overlaps when you draw Venn diagrams of your survey results, sometimes another.

So in the subset of 642 of the 1,085 registered (and active) Virginia voters who last week told the students they'd probably or certainly vote in the gubernatorial election, it turns out there's a sub-sub-set of one third who disapprove of President Donald Trump.

Somewhere between 91.8 percent and all of Northam's supporters disapprove of the president, while 17.8 to 26.2 percent of Gillespie's do.

While there's not a lot of overlap if you try to graph sentiment about Trump, there is some, and that could be a signal about how or if the president will affect Virginia's race.

A couple more numbers:

Nearly half of likely voters (somewhere between 40 and 49 percent) say they see their vote for governor as a way to send a message to Trump. Somewhere between 23.8 and 32.2 percent say it's a message of disapproval, while somewhere between 12.8 to 21.2 percent want to show support for the president.

Roughly seven in 10 Gillespie voters say they don't intend any message with their vote and about half of Northam's voters do.

All that could matter because turnout — and what's motivating turnout — has a lot to do with whether Democrats or Republicans have a edge in Virginia's odd-year elections.

Shad Plank, by the way, is expressing poll results as ranges because of the plus or minus 4.2 percentage point margin of error in the CNU students' results; that is, statistical theory about random sampling and the design effect adjustment that students in CNU stats classes learn about mean a poll result of 45 percent (the number of likely voters the students surveyed who said they saw their vote as a way to send a message to president means that somewhere between 40.8 and 49.2 percent of all likely voters feel that way). That is, probably. For stats theory also notes that 95 of 100 surveys done the same way would come up with results in those ranges.

Ress can be reached by telephone at 757-247-4535

Source: Money and math make elections go